Hedging against a potential war in Ukraine. Discussion of strategies.

I was having a conversation with some friends about what would be the best move to make now in the market and I’m curious as to what others are doing or would do if in this situation:

You have a wide variety of crypto assets locked up you can’t withdraw for a while and you believe there will be a crypto market crash caused by a war in the Ukraine breaking out in the coming days/weeks. What would you do to prepare? How would you hedge if there wasn’t shorting opportunities on all the tokens you held.

Wouldn’t you want to short tokens that would potentially have the greatest potential fall percentage wise instead of large caps that would show more resilience like btc or eth? Which cryptos or other assets *that you have the ability to short* fall the hardest in crashes caused by events like this? What platforms would you use to open these positions and why?

What would you do to protect your stack that’s locked up if you think a crash is coming soon? What’s the most optimal strategy? My thoughts so far are you take everything you can out of the market into stablecoin deposit that into UST on anchor and earn 20% apy then borrow aUST and use that in mirror protocol to make moves from there to protect yourself like shorting a few crypto assets that would have the largest sell pressure. Which specific cryptos would those be? OR just take that aUST and put in buy orders that could get filled on a crash.

I know there are some people here with some slick strategies and way more knowledge than my friends and I. Would love to hear everyone else’s irl plans of what they are currently doing or what they would do if in this scenario.

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4 thoughts on “Hedging against a potential war in Ukraine. Discussion of strategies.”

  1. It depends what you think the connection between crypto and the Russia/Ukraine war is.

    If it’s just fear, I would target coins that are big enough to have room to shrink, but don’t have a lot of long-term potential, such as LTC (slow verifications aren’t desirable for proof-of-work and scrypt doesn’t really make mining more equitable), XRP (centralized), BCH (is a lower block size really what people want?) as this might just be an excuse for those things to speed up their overall downward trajectory.

    There are reasons to believe this might drive crypto up, not down, however. Russia’s aggression is synced with them adopting some more-crypto-friendly policies, and war could be good for Russia’s economy, creating a growing crypto adoption in a large country with a growing economy.

  2. Russian attack itself will have very short and very small effect on the markets.

    That’s what happened in 2014 when they annexed Crimea and it will be the same this time.


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