First of UK based here, so I don’t know the full ins and outs of US economic situation and politics.
I’ve seen quite abit of talk/comments etc regarding something tomorrow where the US government is going to announce something, Q2 rates, basically indicating if it’s a recession or not. I’ve also seen that they’ve apparently changed the terminology of what a recession is in.
1st question – What are they exactly announcing Tomorrow?
2nd question – With regards to the announcement what are your predictions on what will happen to the price of Cryptocurrency?
I think alot of people hold the sentiment that we are at some point soon heading into a recession. I sincerely hope if we do you are all able to keep financially stable even if it means a few cut backs.
3rd question – Do you have a plan in place for a recession with regards to crypto, are you going to continue to DCA, take a break or just cross that bridge when you come to it?
Thanks in advance for any replies
Hello fellow Brit! Looking at the news this week I think it’s a case of short term sniping with tight stop losses or just continue your normal DCA. Made a cheeky little 10% on ATOM yesterday and will be looking for the same again today.
Not making any big plans and just holding my existing bag. This will probably go lower again before a recovery starts to form.
A recession is a lagging indicator anyway, people who make the market aren’t stupid. They already know exactly what the figure is going to be before it’s announced, the lobbyists who work with and for these firms have most of US congress directly in their pockets. A ‘recession’ is a HISTORICAL definition, it shows what has happened over the previous 6 months and offers little indication of what will occur in the following 6 months.
Trying to make estimations is an impossible game, nobody knows how the market will react. Literally the only strategy that is going to work for you reliably here is DCA and hold, if you’re concerned about a sharp drop or climb then buy both before and after the announcement and you have a great mid point cost basis.
Whatever will happen:
– keep on your side a bottle of whisky.
If it goes well you party, if it goes bad you have comfort
To be honest… I can see an aggressive interest hike of 100 points be bullish, the quicker the Fed gets inflation under control, the quicker we can get back to an organic bull market. So I’m actually bullish on these hikes while everyone else is bearish. The longer it takes the Fed to correct this shit, the longer it takes for the market to correct. It’s oversimplified, but to me it makes sense.
Facts:
-The Atlanta Fed has already published preliminary data on the state of the GDP. So we already know it’s likely gonna be negative, and maybe not far from -1.6%
[https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow](https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow)
-The last CPI numbers kept going up at 9.1%. The previous rate hike was a 75 bps hike. So with the increase, we know that the next hike has to be at a minimum 75 bps, but 100 bps is now on the table.
But can we really draw any conclusions on what the market will do in response? That’s a tough guess, since markets actually went up following the 9.1% CPI. And markets don’t always follow the most logical path.
You have to keep in mind a hundred other factors affecting supply and demand within the market, and what the price action has already done. It’s not only about Fed rates.
So it’s once again a game of Nostradamus.
If I had to bet, I wouldn’t bet on the most obvious outcome, nor what everyone already knows and would be the most priced in.
No more recession because they changed definition lmao. 😂
Nothing is gonna happen as the government just changes the definition of recession to not be in a wrong position for midterms.
We will probably just see a bit of a 100bps hike dip.
Probably gonna wake up, eat some toast and cry in the shower?
Basically every other day.
They’ll say we’re not in a recession to not cause panic. Then they’ll wait for big players to sell slowly and then declare a recession.
Manipulation is the name of the game
Is not it today?
Just from a glance at my economic calendar…
Today (7/27): Fed rate gets announced, FOMC makes a statement, some (comparatively) minor economic data regarding good orders and home sales – most people will only care about the Fed rate and the FOMC statement.
Tomorrow (7/28): Advance GDP (there are actually three separate GDPs for each quarter that come out ~1 month apart, but this is the one that usually gets the most market reaction)
​
Now, for what I think will happen? Well, there’s an interesting confluence of factors at play here.
I haven’t heard anything about the administration changing the definition of a recession; I think that’s something people are taking out of context. Even if they did, though, if the data says recession, then the news is going to say recession. Remember, if we’ve learned anything in the past ten years, it’s that bad news sells – and the news has already been alluding to a recession for the last 3 months at least.
So I think once it’s official, if by data if perhaps not by official statement, the market will throw into chaos for a bit. I don’t know what direction will prevail, because here’s the thing: the winds are changing direction. Prices are falling again, middle-of-the-year quarter reports usually aren’t that great anyway, and most of the things we were panicking about at the beginning of the year are passing.
I think what’s going to happen is a pretty solid fight between the entities who see early signs that things are starting to improve and the more pessimistic entities. There’s a decent change that the bears win this this time since everyone’s pretty bearish right now, but I think this is the last solid victory they get for a while, if they even get one.
everyone on twitter thinks dump so it prob pumps and btc hits 23k.
Buying the dips of solid projects and Hodling has worked out well over the past 13 years… can’t see any reason to deviate.
> if it’s a recession or not
Its not a recession, they changed the meaning of recession so they can announce theyre not in one… an iq move.
Ima keep eating cake and coffee and continue to DCA. Everything else is just noise.
Announcing the borrowing interest rate from federal reserve to banks. Which the banks then pass on to retail customers.
Increase of 0.75%, most likely.
My guess:
The news will do the damage.
Day traders and investors will watch, get spooked and sell, most likely a few days going down 20% or something.
Headlines: “looting in the streets – the feds took ‘er dollars”.
Prepped for ADA vasil news, and markets wide dips.
When people expected something to happen, most of the time nothing will happen.
I can’t predict the future so i stay with the most safe strategy in my opinion. DCA and HODL
They are announcing interest rates right? Basically how much interest your debt has.
I can’t tell what will happen, I bet its another 75bps so its whatever, if its as expected we might have a run, if it is more or less, we might be down, whatever IDC much
I have no plan, Ill keep on working and doing the usual, recession doesn’t mean much for me lol, sure assets will take a hit but they recover and I can wait, my stocks, crypto and Angelblock nfts are not going anywhere so i will just chill
Nothing, as usual dump or pump. Markets will not react with a lot sense.
Hide till its over
No worries, the White House changed the definition of a recession so we’re good now. Actually, they didn’t even change it, they just said the definition that we all know to be true is no longer true but gave no replacement. I guess that means its whatever they want it to be.
I missed the dip earlier this week waiting for the dip today… Great investment strategy let’s see how it works out. Too little too late I realize the rate increase is likely already priced into the markets.
Theyre going to come out and say that yes we have had a second quarter of lowered gdp, and then theyre going to talk about how everyone has 5 part time jobs so therefore the economy is not struggling, then asset prices will spike.
Then a few weeks later we’ll realize that was a lie and theyll come out with a new one to distract us for a couple weeks.
The “Fed” has regular meetings to discuss what it’s planning to do or is going to do. The “raising the interest rates” that it does is a base rate that is used when banks loan each other money (essentially). It’s not the interest rate that “regular people/businesses” get charged by a bank when they get a loan (that rate is much higher).
Anyway, here’s the link to the FOMC meeting/calendar, with dates of past meetings posted and the final report(s)/minutes they send out after the meeting.
Note that they can meet at any time, this is just the regularly scheduled meetings.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
My prediction is that crypto will tank again, and it may be brief and a slow rise until the next meeting. This is based on what’s happened the last times the fed raises the interest rates after this meeting (which is super highly likely, though anything can happen in the meeting, they apparently try to “do what they say” to instill confidence in what they say).
Obviously crypto can do anything, but that seems to be the general trend on how it’s been going recently.
Note that the Fed might have said “we are going to raise the rate .75 percent!” And then in the meeting they decide to raise it only .74 percent, and that “amazing good news the rate is lower than predicted!” Might cause a bump up in everything, for some dumb reason. We’ll see.