>”I basically expect that the merge is going to be kind of not priced-in, by which I mean like not even just like market terms, but even just kind of like psychological and narrative terms ”
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The Howey Test goes as follows:
1. An investment of money
2. In a common enterprise
3. With the expectation of profit
4. To be derived from the efforts of others
If an investment checks all four, then that means it’s a security under the SEC’s guidelines.
I think Vitalik’s quote here could be used as crucial ammo the SEC will use to constitute Ether being a security. Because not only is there an investment of money in a common enterprise with the Ethereum Foundation, but now Vitalik giving price predictions is giving the expectation of profits to the investor.
This is on the backdrop on the illegal 2014 initial coin offering that allowed US investors to participate in the security offering the without Ethereum Foundation registering the security with the SEC.