“This time is different.” Well, it is always different.

I don’t know what the market is going to do these next weeks and months. No one knows.

This is something this market cycle is showing. None of the major models to predict what was going to happen proved to be accurate. It is interesting that no matter how long one stares at the charts, it seems like there not much we can go on that will shed light on current market behavior. There was no blow-off top for BTC. There was no 90% freefall. There was no 100k BTC by 2021.

What we have is the weird sideways movement ~60% below ATH without a clear blow-off top and I don’t think anyone really expected that.

So I don’t really know what to say with this quick rant. Just don’t go randomly trusting predictions, try to select projects with reasonable use cases and hope for the best, I guess.

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10 thoughts on ““This time is different.” Well, it is always different.”

  1. Crypto will take anyone’s predictions and expected outcomes and gleefully proceed to do the exact opposite as if to fuck with them personally

  2. The only thing I know for sure is that I feel like I am throwing my fiat into a black hole and I can’t stop doing it.

  3. A Pandemic, global supply chain shortages and looming economic depression could have suppressed that blow off top and made it unclear but maybe that’s just me. I’d be shocked if it was able to climb all the way back to the top when retail is out here struggling through a recession.

  4. Human behavior drives the markets. A chart is literally that. Human behavior visualised. The macro can change but human greed and fear won’t.

    That’s why I think everyone should give basic TA a shot instead of calling it astrology and shooting it down.


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