My first bear market – I need to gather advice and experience

Dear Community,

This is my first bear market, and it has been such a rush. I enjoyed almost every bit of it, what a rush – I didn’t panic sell or buy(ish) although I did ape in some stupid trades.

I want to become a better trader, and are therefore collecting my mistakes and mishaps to avoid repeating them. And for this, I would really like your inputs.

When UST started depegging I aped in around 0.4 and 0.33 when it first hit around tuesday I think (around 300$) for a quick profit when it would hit 0.7. As the idiot I am, I accidently sold it for 0.34 as I was trading during a company meeting on my phone. This mistake cost me a lot – so its a no brainer that trading while semi-focused is off the table. (I also feel that I deserved this, as I was a bit ashamed of exploiting the arbitrage opportunity).

Anyways, I was so annoyed by my mistake that I decided to ape in again around 0.20$ and 0.25$ to recoup the loss if UST would hit 0.5$ and 0.6$, but then UST lost the fight. From this I learned that trading while angry is a bad idea.

I exchanged the UST for BUSD, and decided that I was already at a loss so I might as well gamble it away – so I threw the BUSD at LUNA and are now able to recoup my loss. But now I cant get myself to sell my LUNA as I, for some odd reason, believe that it will go even higher. I know that I will kick myself, if it turns out that LUNA will rise more – and also kick myself if I lose it, while I had the chance to recoup.

How do you guys deal with the, what I expect happens to all investors, greed that comes from potential gains?

If there is one thing that I certainly learned from this bear market, is that the majority of my portofolio is to be invested in “solid” projects like BTC and ETH while the rest is allocated to more riskier assets.

Is there anything I should learn and know? Other than DCA ofcourse!

Best,

The crypto noob

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28 thoughts on “My first bear market – I need to gather advice and experience”

  1. I’m gonna dm you a couple of posts I’ve made. I’m only dming to save people from reading the same shit. Don’t give me your seed phrase for the love of God.

    Reply
  2. Some things I wish I had known in 2018…

    I’ve seen a few post lately asking is it a good time to buy?

    That got me thinking about things I wish I’d known all along. I’ve done well out of my second bull run but if I’d known more at the start I would have made a killing.

    So some learning points:

    Learn about BTC cycles, halving, BTC bull and bear cycles.

    Also learn about BTC moving averages for example the 200 week moving average, rainbow chart and regression bands.

    If you are into alts, understand that alts are priced in BTC and move with BTC. It’s also crucial to understand BTC dominance. That increases with big btc moves either up or down. This means that when BTC tanks, alts tank much harder. It doesn’t matter how good your favourite project is, in a bear market it’s probably going to do much worse than BTC (In alt season at the end of a bull run the opposite happens.) The Alt collapse has not happened yet this bear. Maybe it won’t, but it’s probably just around the corner.

    Whale manipulation is probably greatly overstated as a factor in downtrends. We aren’t just waiting for the whales to finish accumulating so they can let the prices up again (how is that even possible or make sense? It isn’t and it doesn’t.) whale manipulation might be overlayed on top of the cycles a little, but the behaviour of people new to the market probably contributes much more significantly to cycles.

    A couple of other things to understand (this is a tough one and also controversial here but it shouldn’t be)- it doesn’t matter what you bought your portfolio for. That is totally irrelevant to what it’s worth now. That is good to keep in mind if you are at a loss and the sensible move is to sell (I know we aren’t allowed to say that here- check the comments below arguing about that one. I can preempt most of them- “never sell at a loss that’s terrible advice.” There, said it, we can move on to actually thinking now…)

    It’s also good to keep in mind in a bull market where the value of your portfolio can get large enough to be “money you can’t afford to lose” even if you strictly can afford it as after all, it’s surplus.

    Another way of looking at that- holding onto your portfolio is the same as deciding to buy into the market on the day with x$ value to buy tokens at price X. How your current wealth is deployed and whether that distribution is a sensible decision for that point in time is all that matters. Whether your wealth was greater or smaller 6 months ago and how it was distributed back then are completely irrelevant to the decision of what is the right thing to do at the moment.

    Just one other observation. We keep hearing it’s different this time. This time it really might be. A BTC cycle end has previously always just been an intrinsic function of BTC. This is the first time a cycle end has coincided with a significant general macro downturn.

    Reply
  3. My guy you are a gambler. If you ever get your hands on some leverage you will lose everything. Buy and hold something that’s not a shitcoin

    Reply
  4. Considering that you are admitting that you beat yourself up for missing a gain opportunity and beat up for yourself for losses, is investing in crypto the right thing for you?

    Can’t trade based on emotions. May benefit to “practice” in stocks as the gains/losses are lower.

    Reply
  5. Forget about Luna, if you can recover your losses do it. It’s lost trust, it’s lost liquidity and it got inflated, I wouldn’t gamble on Luna it’s not worth it.

    Reply
  6. Honestly the same phenomena exists in stock trading. The secret is to set limits around your trades, and forget it. The smart person is trying to make 10-15% a trade. Guaranteed that if you make 10-15% per trade, and you miss out on the ones that would have made you 100%, you’ll average out ahead every time because you also won’t be factoring in the numerous trades where you ended up losing 50%.

    So, buy something at .50 and set a limit sell order for .55 or .60. Then buy it at .62 and set a limit sell order for .70 and a sell at .56 – just to cover your ass.

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  7. Take profit religiously. Capital preservation is the most important thing. People think gains should be consistent so over trade or take stupid risks.

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  8. Simple. What are you invested in and why? Why does your investment exist? What are the pros and cons of that investment being in the world? Can you explain on a semi technical level how your investment works? What is the potential that investment could bring to the world? What possible branches can/have come about from that investment.

    Reply
  9. Don’t day trade is my advice. Or practice for a while with like a super small amount while you continue to learn; small enough to completely keep emotions out of it.

    Reply
  10. Trust your gut. If you think there will be lower entry points to come, don’t blindly HODL and not capitalize on that, even if you’re all in on a certain project.

    Reply
  11. Ffs. Make a plan and stick to it. Mine was a 2x. Than take the initial capital out. I did it. Now it’s just a fun coaster ride!

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  12. Just hop onto TradingView and watch the charts for a few months, place “fake” trades, learn how the market moves.

    Reply
  13. I’ll save you years of reading and research.

    How to become a better trader? Don’t.

    Nobody knows shit about fuck.

    Invest only what you’re comfortable losing. Never invest money you will need in the next 5 years.

    No one can guarantee you a 10% APY, let alone 20%. If they try, run the fuck away.

    Diversify your funds outside of crypto. Stocks, RE, bonds, cash.

    Automatic DCA.

    Have a contingency plan to make sure you can survive the worst case scenarios.

    Stop wasting your time looking at charts every 5 minutes.

    Reply

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