Is “..this time is different..” a meme? Or could there be some truth to it?

**TLDR: Most indicators point to increased trust, adoption, utility across crypto.. which equals maturity and reduced volatility.**

Bitcoin has a decade of maturity, adoption and growth behind it. We should consider that “this time is different” isn’t a meme, and take care in painting everything as “in 2018 or 2015 xx happened … so in 2022 this will happen.” While that -may- still hold true, you have to consider that as a new asset class, Bitcoin is evolving.

[Cycle Trends in terms of Growth and Corrections](

One of the interesting developments this cycle is expanded participants from TRADFI, ETFs, governments, corporations, musicians/artists/actors, etc. – its logical to see a reduction in volatility (upside and downside); more liquidity and trust = more stability. However we are still many stages from true mass adoption, so compared other markets volatility remains elevated.

Some points to consider:

1. I think traditional crypto patterns are ending. We are entering a new paradigm that many HTF analysts are still coming to terms with. Reference

[Cycle Patterns ](

.. and you clearly see what I mean- patterns reflect market fundamentals/psychology. That rising support is a reflection of the cycle’s growing trust, adoption and maturity – TRADFI is a big player in the space now, whales are more experienced- both trade on technicals, not emotions.. – in the past we logged steep selloffs after an emotional parabolic top in a retail speculative-driven environment.

2. Reduced [volatility]( was a theme of this cycle. Drawdowns and rises are weaker overall. In terms of growth and corrections this was the weakest cycle yet. The past two cycles logged an 80% weaker growth compared to the one that preceded it. And in terms of duration, you can use the [bullish]( / [bearish]( inversions of the 20w [SMA]( and 21w [EMA]( as a marker for bull and bear cycles- we observe a 17% shorter duration per cycle.

[Cycle Trends for 20\/21w MA Band](

3. Supply is overall net drawdown for years (over 20% drop in supply since 2019), while the cost of mining rises. Miners and longterm holders are HODLing more than ever. This means less supply is available while demand for Bitcoin grows. I can’t post a link to other services and TV doesn’t provide supply data that I am aware of, so I attempted to paste a chart image showing that from Bitcoin’s inception until 2019 it was a net increase in supply. But since then we’ve logged a net decline.

And so all of this to say that an 80% correction would take us to $10k Bitcoin , but given how (so far) our cycle growth was muted, I also expect the floor to remain higher during corrections- and so far it appears that is the case.

Note: all of this comes with a big caveat — if we go to war or governments struggle to combat [inflation]( and we hit a major recession or depression, this could invalidate Bitcoin’s trajectory. Both of these are events that Bitcoin and crypto never endured, so it will be a test for my thesis that [volatility]( is down while trust is up and growth will protect Bitcoin from larger corrections like we saw in the past.

**Attachments—**

[Attachment 1: Cycle Growth Trend – Growth is Weaker Over Time\/Per Cycle](

[Attachment 2: Supply on Exchanges – Since 2019 a Net Decline](

And a reminder – our weekly Podcast is back this week. We’ll be livestreaming the original broadcast here in r/CryptoCurrency tonight at 6pm Eastern!

For those who missed it – we weren’t able to broadcast on Reddit last night due to technical issues. But here is where we upload podcasts when we are finished. [

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23 thoughts on “Is “..this time is different..” a meme? Or could there be some truth to it?”

  1. Is it even legal to give away this much copium?

    Jokes aside, very detalied post. Hope to see more of your posts around here.

    Reply
  2. It’s a meme because we all want to believe this time it is different but there is truth to it since crypto is gaining more and more adaptation and recognition so maybe this cycle will be different than the previous

    Reply
  3. There’s two tactics I like in crypto. DCA for 5 years and you’ll likely sell higher.

    Or mop up during recessions to sell in better times.

    Mix the two? DCA and buy more when prices fall. Problem is, its difficult to say what is a ‘bargain’ price.

    Reply
  4. My TA says we are at the lowest point of the trough. A bull market will come in early March.

    However we have hit a lower price point than I thought possible recently. The market is incredibly volatile.

    Reply
  5. Thanks for such a detailed post. I’m a bit of a noob though and don’t understand what the “80% weaker growth” bit means – is this directly calculated from volatility or is a raw measure of change in price?How is this calculated in this context please?

    And on that measure, what would an 80% reduction on latest cycle growth mean the expected price would be in the next cycle please?

    Reply
  6. TA is great and all to find trends/entry’s etc. but if the US decides to throw a flat 40% on crypto gains this week, all TA is out the window and bitcoin probably goes to 20k or lower imo.

    Reply
  7. I just like those emojis with the dude shaking the head while changing color next to the “this time is different”. But I don’t know how to post them

    Aaaand I think I never felt so old in my life

    Reply

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