If Everything Was Priced In, Doesn’t It Mean The Bullish Momentum Is Already Priced In As Well?

many bulls on twitter and even here on reddit said the market was already “priced in”, hence why now the market has been going up despite the Fed raised interest rate by 75 bps once again. But using the same logic, can’t we say the same thing about bullish momentums?

Market generally has been going up since mid June until now, bitcoin was below $18K at the time and now it’s almost $23K. doesn’t that mean whatever trigger the current bullish movement won’t sustain since it’s also already priced in?

For example, many media outlets claimed Ethereum Merge triggered the recent bullish price action for Ethereum. But using this logic, that means the market will dump after the day of the Merge itself, since the bullish momentum is “priced in” too early?

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17 thoughts on “If Everything Was Priced In, Doesn’t It Mean The Bullish Momentum Is Already Priced In As Well?”

  1. That’s not what priced in means. The market can’t predict the future. What it means is that the market expects a result to a certain percentage. For todays meeting, the chances were about ~70% for 0.75 and ~30% for 1.00 rate hike. So the the market jumped because the 70% chance became 100%.

    If I offer you a coin flip and pay you $2 if you win, how much is the bet worth? $1. So the market will offer me exactly $1 for it, and all possible results will be priced in. Doesn’t mean that the bet cannot be suddenly worth $0 or $2 after the results are in.

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  2. Regarding ETH merge being priced in, after the merge there isn’t a reason for its value to go down. It likely would go up if the merge is a success. Regarding the overall priced in stuff, the market is happy there were no surprises today. Market could pull back tomorrow…we don’t know.

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  3. No one can say whether a certain event is already priced in or not. In theory, however, all events should be priced in according to their probability of occurrence, but we do not have efficient markets, as these can only occur in theory. In non-efficient markets, certain events can either be priced in, over-priced in, or not priced in. However, how often a price can be assigned to a certain classification is unknown to me.

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  4. That’s not what “priced in” means.

    You can’t price in “everything”, lol.

    When people say something is priced in, it usually means that there is information the market already knows or has already known about, or something the consensus might be expecting already.

    It doesn’t mean that every scenario is priced in.

    When CPI hit 9.1%, it was already a given that we would get 75bps at a minimum, and possibly even 100bps.

    The market already knows the Fed is heading to around a 3% target. It’s information we already have.

    The expectation was low for MSFT and GOOG earnings.

    Hence why those things didn’t really create any panic.

    But you have to keep in mind that there’s a lot of moving parts for the price. And a lot of different things being priced in. Some countering each other. And some having more weight than others.

    So it’s a little more complex than that.

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  5. Anything that has ever been discussed, future and past has been priced in. This comment im typing out and clicking reply with is priced in. Any replies also are priced in

    But seriously things that happen instantaneously are not priced in and thats where markets become erratic. Think Russia invasion, UST collapse, Surprise Celsius bailout etc.

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  6. >For example, many media outlets claimed Ethereum Merge triggered the recent bullish price action for Ethereum. But using this logic, that means the market will dump after the day of the Merge itself, since the bullish momentum is “priced in” too early?

    In general: You, sir, just perfectly described “buy the rumor, sell the news”.

    Markets “pricing something in” = simply market participants front-running others. This is how markets work and this happens literally all the time. “Markets” are not some mystical creature and even though bigger players move the market (a lot) more than smaller ones, it is still just the sum of the participants in said market.

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  7. FOMC meeting is just an excuse for volatility to liquidate people, they’ve been saying it’ll will be another 75bp since the last hike. Price action today was already known in advance and for sure priced in. Nothing has changed ultimately, bitcoin followed the cyclical pattern that was already laid out, 3 hits to the low, rise, retrace, now rise 2. Check the 1 day chart. It’s standard movement all day long

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