I have heard a million times that time in the market beats timing the market.
That was clearly true if you were around when BTC went through rallies that were orders of magnitudes. We are seeing diminishing returns though. If someone bought BTC at the Ath 2017 it did a 3.5 x to nov 2021. That’s great but it doesn’t compare to 20x from ath 2013 to ath 2021.
What can someone who bought BTC at ath 2021 expect if they hold for 4 years? It’s not going to be 20x imo. My guess is 2x.
Time in the market beats timing the market in stocks where there aren’t massive cyclical moves and general volatility is low interspersed with unpredictable event. That’s different to crypto where there are large cyclical moves. This allows us to have a slightly more advanced approach than dca dca dca.
Anyone how has been through crypto winter and out the other side will learn that taking profits during a parabolic uptrend is a good move. If it’s a good time to sell, it can’t be a good time to buy as well.
So my approach to timing the market is just to identify the parabolic uptrends where o dca out and the bear markets where i dca in. It’s as simple as that. It’s timing the market but on a resolution of 4 years so if a need an extra 3 months to confirm whether it’s a good buy or sell patch it doesn’t matter. Timing the market doesn’t need to be trading in a daily or weekly manner. That does sound difficult and unpredictable to me.
There are plenty of guides to help with the dreaded “timing the market” in this 4 year fashion. BTC halving, 200 week moving average, rainbow or regression charts are all worth learning about.
If you are going to involve alts in this, it’s crucial to understand that alts are essentially priced in BTC and move in BTC. Furthermore BTC dominance is crucial to come to grips with. BTC dominance usually rises with big BTC moves (especially down) making BTC price changes amplified greatly in alts. Many alts won’t regain their previous ath after the big dump associated with that.
Timing the market is misunderstood and really not that hard.