Does time in the market really beat timing the market in crypto and will it continue to do so?

I have heard a million times that time in the market beats timing the market.

That was clearly true if you were around when BTC went through rallies that were orders of magnitudes. We are seeing diminishing returns though. If someone bought BTC at the Ath 2017 it did a 3.5 x to nov 2021. That’s great but it doesn’t compare to 20x from ath 2013 to ath 2021.

What can someone who bought BTC at ath 2021 expect if they hold for 4 years? It’s not going to be 20x imo. My guess is 2x.

Time in the market beats timing the market in stocks where there aren’t massive cyclical moves and general volatility is low interspersed with unpredictable event. That’s different to crypto where there are large cyclical moves. This allows us to have a slightly more advanced approach than dca dca dca.

Anyone how has been through crypto winter and out the other side will learn that taking profits during a parabolic uptrend is a good move. If it’s a good time to sell, it can’t be a good time to buy as well.

So my approach to timing the market is just to identify the parabolic uptrends where o dca out and the bear markets where i dca in. It’s as simple as that. It’s timing the market but on a resolution of 4 years so if a need an extra 3 months to confirm whether it’s a good buy or sell patch it doesn’t matter. Timing the market doesn’t need to be trading in a daily or weekly manner. That does sound difficult and unpredictable to me.

There are plenty of guides to help with the dreaded “timing the market” in this 4 year fashion. BTC halving, 200 week moving average, rainbow or regression charts are all worth learning about.

If you are going to involve alts in this, it’s crucial to understand that alts are essentially priced in BTC and move in BTC. Furthermore BTC dominance is crucial to come to grips with. BTC dominance usually rises with big BTC moves (especially down) making BTC price changes amplified greatly in alts. Many alts won’t regain their previous ath after the big dump associated with that.

Timing the market is misunderstood and really not that hard.

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24 thoughts on “Does time in the market really beat timing the market in crypto and will it continue to do so?”

  1. It depends on your goals. I’m not expecting to 20x my BTC holdings in just a few years. I’m not even expecting to 20x my BTC holdings in my lifetime, but I am thinking long-term with my investment. That doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong with taking profits though.

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  2. Spot on – people around here like to treat crypto like the S&P index (along with its investment thesis) to take the stress, fear and research out of it (plus they have no idea what they are doing). I always cringe when I read about time in the market > timing the market – an adage for a 100+ year old market applied to a 12 year old highly speculative one.

    Just by waiting the eventual bust and averaging down between -60% and MA200 one would obliterate (obliterate squared for alts) the blind DCA crowd of this forum.

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  3. Time in the market doesn’t beat timing the market unless things are going parabolic or you got in very early. Data and analysis = astrology according to this sub. They don’t want to hear anything else.

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  4. >Does time in the market really beat timing the market in crypto

    I think as the crypto industry matures, that wisdom will become more apparent. Right now the crypto industry is so volatile that’s it’s easy to mistakenly believe you can time things reliably to make a quick buck.

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  5. I believe there’s a balance involved but ‘time in the market’ cannot be used as a catch all for investing success. Buying in the bear and holding for two or three years seems to be a decent strategy. Take profits on the way up. Rinse and repeat. Trying to time the market bottom is problematic as we are seeing right now. You could DCA your buys.

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  6. The truth is somewhere in between trading and holding. Trying to time the market’s short term moves is extremely high risk, so not a good strategy unless you have lots of money you won’t ever need. On the other hand, staying highly exposed to a position even when everyone knows it is likely to dump soon according to the clear historical pattern, is not usually a good strategy either.

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  7. Time in the market *and* time the market. I agree with your opinion about trying to be sensitive to large scale trends. I think it is at least very doable to buy a little more than average when things are way down and bleak and to take some profits when things have gone parabolic.

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  8. Personally I think so every time I try to time a trade I end up losing a little bit, lesson learned back to ETH

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  9. If you believe you’ve timed the market and jump in with a lump sum and it dips 50% more you’re gonna wish you went the time in the market route.

    Timing the market is another way of saying you hope you’re lucky enough to hop into a system no one can predict at the right time.

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  10. No one has ever lost money holding BTC for 5 or more years. I believe this will continue to be the case for at least another cycle or two.

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  11. I dont think that saying is meant to apply to someone who buys, holds, and sells down the road for a nice profit.

    Its more about buying and going long is a better bet than someone trying to day trade trying to prevent loss by selling/moving funds around when the market takes a downturn and buying/moving back when it bounces back.

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  12. Everyone who bought the top in $19.5K and was patient enough got their money back and some.

    It seems that returns give increasingly less spectacular amounts, as each cycle has more volume and liquidity. So don’t expect massive 17x each time for Bitcoin.

    But past performance doesn’t guarantee future performance.

    Is Bitcoin still gonna be the top crypto?

    Is adoption gonna continue to grow? Along with investment interest. Along with growing utility.

    If you believe it will, then there’s a good chance it should continue on its historic course.

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  13. Zooming out proves time in the market beats timing the market. That being said, DCAing and also having cash reserves for considerable dips seems to be the best play in this space.

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  14. The whole COVID-19 pandemic and its’ macroeconomic effects makes the 2021 ATH probably an outlier on the low side.

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  15. Timing the market beats time in the market, but only if you gamble correctly on what the market will do.

    Assuming you have a 50% chance of guessing right, then time in the market isnt really any better. And of course its much more complicated than that, you are not starting from the position of knowledge, only belief (are we at the bottom of the market now?).

    Time in the market is a lower risk strategy, and therefore has lower rewards, but is more achievable.

    Timing the market is higher risk, and therefore higher rewards, but is harder to do over a long time period.

    Of course this would all be fine and dandy if crypto was an investment vehicle. It isnt though. When crypto replaces fiat, it wont matter how many fiat tokens you managed to extract from crypto.

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