Be cautious about the current upswing

Hi cc!

I noticed something interesting about the current upswing in the market. When you set the BTC/USD chart to a 5 minute interval, you can clearly see only one massive order (or batch of orders) within 5 minutes started this price hike.

​

[One massive 5m candle](

It’s reasonable to assume that only one whale was behind this and to me it’s kinda frightening how one person or institution can move the whole market like that.

So maybe when the price rises high enough we will see an opposite candle of the whale selling and taking a nice profit and the market will be where it started. Or this was just done to liquidate shorts. Either way I would not treat the current positive price development as a new market wide trend just yet.

What do you guys think, am I being too paranoid?

Edit: Link to the chart I used (you should be able to confirm that candle on any trading platform though): [

Set time to 5m on the top left.

Edit2: Because someone in the comments asked, here is the same 5 minute view around the time of the last ATH of 69k. This time the buys were spread out over \~45 minutes which looks a bit more (but not entirely) organic to me. But keep in mind: Getting near the 69k took days of upwards price movement before this spike.

​

Edit3: One of the commenters pointed out that this could be [Terras purchase of BTC reserves]( though I’d assume such huge trades would be done OTC, a portion of it could have been done on exchanges, dunno.

^(PS: Sorry for destroying the hopium we all need right now.)

View Source

42 thoughts on “Be cautious about the current upswing”

  1. Don’t think of this as destroying the hopium.

    You are encouraging us to think more rationally, and preventing potentially big mistakes.

    Reply
  2. One whale might have “caused” this pump. But this pump isn’t a direct result of one massive buy. It’s most likely a liquidation cascade.

    Reply
  3. Could this also have to do with what LUNA is doing buying BTC 🤷🏻 I think I was reading somewhere that that project was buying large amounts of BTC

    Reply
  4. It’s always like that. People trading with 100 dollars think they move the market, no, they’re not. It’s always big market buys or cascades of liquidation/closed trades which shift the price in both directions.

    Reply
  5. >It’s reasonable to assume that only one whale was behind this

    Why is this a reasonable assumption? Have you looked into how much money it would take to move BTC by that much? Please show your work or you’re getting a D minus

    Reply
  6. Could be a bear trap, might not be aswell, only time will tell.

    Best to just DCA over the next little while to mitigate any risks of massive swings and not worry about it.

    Reply
  7. This is market makers pushing price to shift to a new zone. Orders get stale in an area so price moves to fill more orders and spark interest to open new positions. It happens all the time. It’s not a “whale”

    Reply
  8. Yep I’m Team DCA too, put some more in today and will again in 2 weeks on my regular buy schedule ![gif](emote|emo_pack_1|wojakiss)![gif](emote|emo_pack_1|dyor)

    Reply
  9. Nothing new. Elon musk has more money than the market cap of multiple top 10 coins combined. These are emerging markets, of course big players can have a massive influence.

    Reply
  10. Hype was what drove the price to it’s ATH last fall. FUD and inflation is what drove the collapse. A lot of people got pinned in the market, unable to sell without taking a huge loss, and they’ve been waiting for the market to recover, if only to recover their initial investment. But the same FUD and inflation that drove the collapse persists even now and that’s kept demand down. Everybody wants the price to go back up but nobody wants to get back in to drive the price up out of fear that the price will fall, which is ironic. Whatever this is, it seems to have broken the gridlock. Whoever it is, I owe them my gratitude.

    Reply
  11. Or we might just going up. It only takes one spark to start a fire. Whose to say if it was one person they won’t hold that entry? Markets are not rational, and crypto is even less

    Edit: This post is not aging well. Btc to 48k now

    Reply
  12. One thing that always makes me thinking, doesn’t placing such a huge order in a short time create a big price slippage for that one whale? (Price moves up because a big portion of liquidity is consumed during order fill). Is it still profitable for that whale to do this slippage twice? (Once when buying once when selling)

    Reply
  13. LGF (Luna Guard Foundation) is going to buy lots of BTC in the next few weeks.

    Retail investors are just trying to front run LGF.

    Reply
  14. Look at liquidations first. Large candles red and green are usually the result of derivative positions getting liquidated and either forcing to buy or sell to cover their positions.

    If you don’t see liquidations then you can investigate other sources of large amounts of capital entering the market.

    Reply
  15. This simply isn’t accurate from a TA standpoint. The jump wasn’t from a whale. Zone out to the weekly or monthly, it’s a simple correction. The surge in orders is coming from an old order block . What is happening right now is totally normal in any chart you look at whether it’s crypto, stocks, forex, etc.. A 5 minute chart isn’t going to tell a broad story, it’s gonna tell you a very acute and disorganized story. It’s well known , the lower the time frame the less reliable. There’s too much noise and ambiguity. Look at the daily or weekly and it looks like business as usual

    Reply
  16. Wouldn’t that always be the case with institutional buyers with big orders or other companies trying to buy BTC for reserve?

    BTC will always move in this fasion and there is nothing wrong with it.

    Reply
  17. Terra Luna committed to buying some insane amount of BTC to back UST. I think they are buying something like $125 Million a day. Don’t quote me. So that’s going to have an effect no matter what.

    Reply
  18. Sorry you don’t know what you’re talking about. That candle is not just one whale pumping the price. You realize how much money that whale would be throwing away to run up the price like that? It’s like burning money to make big purchases like that.

    Whales buy slowly and discretely because there’s never enough liquidity at one time to fill an order like this.

    What actually happened is a combination of some larger purchases and a shit ton of short positions being liquidated at the same time. Lots of trading bots and whales moving together as one, not a single entity manipulating the price like you imply.

    I’m not saying there won’t be a dump after this, but the idea that a single whale is manipulating and making these purchases is ridiculous.

    Reply
  19. I DCA, but I also don’t think this is something to worry about. In the past, almost all rallies start with a large whale market buying, and liquidating a ton of shorts creating a cascade of liquidations. This may be the start of something good, or the continuation of something bear. I lean towards something good 👍🏻

    Reply

Leave a Comment